Ornament - Details

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At a minimum, we need to understand the following key elements of the goal:                                                      

• Assumptions – The underlying beliefs that must be true for the goal to be achievable. Assumptions are inherently risky because they may be incorrect.
• Hypothesis – The relationship between planned actions, assumptions, and the goal. Hypotheses help predict goal attainment and test assumptions.
• Metrics – The numerical quantification of the goal, its characteristics, or the hypothesis. Emphasis is placed on leading indicators that provide early signals of success or deviation.

Each of these components ensures that our approach is structured, measurable, and adaptable to changing realities.

To extract assumptions, we ask:

“What must be true for us to reach the goal?”
Additionally, artificial intelligence can assist in identifying assumptions, as human cognition tends to overlook implicit beliefs. AI, designed to detect underlying patterns, can highlight assumptions we might miss.

To evaluate assumptions, we use a risk assessment scale:

1. Likelihood of Falsehood – Rate from 1 to 10, where 1 means the assumption is almost certainly true and 10 means it is almost certainly false.
2. Impact on Goal Attainment if False – Rate from 1 to 10, where 1 means little to no impact and 10 means a catastrophic impact on goal achievement.
3. Magnitude Score – Multiply Likelihood of Falsehood × Impact on Goal Attainment to determine which assumptions pose the highest risk.

Priority should be given to testing assumptions with the highest magnitude scores, as they carry the greatest risk to success.
 

A hypothesis defines the forecasted outcome when planned actions are taken. To ensure clarity, we use a structured format:

GIVEN (the assumption) – “What must be true for us to reach our goal?”                                                    
IF (we take a planned action) – “What specific actions or outputs should we produce to reach the goal?”
THEN (we expect the outcome) – “If we execute those actions, what result do we predict?”                        
 

By quantifying the relationship between assumptions, actions, and outcomes, we develop leading indicators of success. These help us course-correct early and ensure alignment with the goal.

Metrics provide an objective way to track progress. They quantify either:

1. Outputs Produced – What is created or delivered.
2. Inputs Utilized – Resources, time, and effort invested.
3. Characteristics of Outputs or Inputs – Quality, effectiveness, or efficiency.
4. Activity Measures – The quantity, speed, severity, or intensity of activities leading to the goal.

Leading indicators (early predictors of success) should be prioritized over lagging indicators (which only measure past results). This ensures real-time feedback and agility in adjusting the approach.

The "Ornament" phase ensures that goals are well-structured, assumptions are tested, and progress is measurable. By rigorously defining assumptions, forming predictive hypotheses, and establishing actionable metrics, we create a clear, data-driven framework that guides decision-making and enhances the probability of success.