Ornament - Details

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At a minimum, we need to understand the following details of the goal:

1. Assumptions - things that we believe to be true concerning goal.Assumptions are risky by nature as they could be incorrect.
2. Hypothesis - the relationship between actions we plan to take, assumptions, and the goal itself. Hypotheses help to predict the future of goal attainment and serve to test the assumptions.
3. Metrics - numerical quantification of the goal, its characteristics, or the hypothesis. Emphasis is place on leading indicator metrics which let us know if we are on track to complete the goal as expected. Having metrics helps us to meet the “Measurable” criteria in SMART.

AssumptionsIn order to extract assumptions, we ask the question “what must be true in order for us to reach the goal?”. Also use AI to extract assumptions. Humans are notoriously bad at uncovering assumptions but AI was explicitly designed to understand assumptions.Optionally, it helps to further ornament the likelihood that the assumptions are NOT true on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being that the assumptions are definitely false and 1 being being that the assumption is definitely a fact. Furthermore, it helps to assess the impact of the assumption to accomplishing the goal if the assumption is false using the same 1 to 10 scale with 10 being the largest impact. This enables one to multiply the likelihood of being false * the impact if it is false to calculate on overall magnitude score. We should test out the highest magnitude items first. They deserve a hypothesis.HypothesisA hypothesis is an expression of the forecasted conclusion/outcome when planned actions are taken to reach the goal. For clarity, we use the format:GIVEN the assumption - “What must be true to reach our goal?”IF we do the planned action - “What actions should I take/or outputs should I produce, in order to reach the goal?”THEN we should see the forecasted conclusion/outcome - “If I produce those outputs and actions, what do I think the result will be?”Asking the questions, “what will you do to reach the goal given that the assumption is true?” normally leads to the planned action. Quantifying the relationship between assumptions, actions, and the goal lead to leading indicators of success.MetricsMetrics are the quantification of either 1) outputs products 2) inputs utilized 3) quantification of characteristics of either output or inputs 4) measurement of the quantity, speed, severity, or intensity of the activities used to produce the